WASHINGTON — In 2016, American intelligence companies delivered pressing and specific warnings about Russia’s intentions to attempt to tip the American presidential election — and a detailed assessment of the operation afterward — thanks in giant half to informants near President Vladimir V. Putin and in the Kremlin who supplied essential particulars.
But two years later, the important Kremlin informants have largely gone silent, leaving the C.I.A. and different spy companies in the darkish about exactly what Mr. Putin’s intentions are for November’s midterm elections, in keeping with American officers conversant in the intelligence.
The officers don’t imagine the sources have been compromised or killed. Instead, they’ve concluded they’ve gone to floor amid extra aggressive counterintelligence by Moscow, together with efforts to kill spies, like the poisoning in March in Britain of a former Russian intelligence officer that utilized a uncommon Russian-made nerve agent.
Current and former officers additionally mentioned the expulsion of American intelligence officers from Moscow has damage assortment efforts. And officers additionally raised the risk that the outing of an F.B.I. informant below scrutiny by the House intelligence committee — an examination encouraged by President Trump — has had a chilling impact on intelligence assortment.
Technology corporations and political campaigns in latest weeks have detected a plethora of political interference efforts originating abroad, together with hacks of Republican assume tanks and pretend liberal grass-roots organizations created on Facebook. Senior intelligence officers, together with Dan Coats, the director of nationwide intelligence, have warned that Russians are intent on subverting American democratic establishments.
But American intelligence companies haven’t been in a position to say exactly what are Mr. Putin’s intentions: He may very well be attempting to tilt the midterm elections, merely sow chaos or typically undermine belief in the democratic course of.
The officers, in search of to guard strategies of assortment from Russia, wouldn’t present particulars about misplaced sources, however acknowledged the degradation in the data collected from Russia. They spoke on situation of anonymity as a result of they weren’t licensed to disclose labeled data. A spokesman for the C.I.A. declined to remark.
To decide what the Russian authorities is as much as, the United States employs a number of types of intelligence, together with intercepted communications and penetrated laptop networks.
The United States continues to intercept Russian communication, and the circulation of that intelligence stays sturdy, mentioned present and former officers. And Russian informants might nonetheless meet their C.I.A. handlers exterior Russia, farther from Moscow’s counterintelligence equipment.
But folks inside or near the Kremlin stay important to divining whether or not there’s a technique behind seemingly scattershot efforts to undermine American establishments.
Spies and informants abroad additionally give American intelligence companies early warning about affect campaigns, interference operations or different makes an attempt to compromise the United States. That data, in flip, can enhance the capacity of home companies, like the Department of Homeland Security and the F.B.I., to rapidly establish and try to cease these efforts.
Because clandestine conferences can take months to arrange and full, a prolonged lag can go earlier than the C.I.A. realizes a key supply has gone silent, in keeping with former officers. It is uncommon for the company to find instantly that informants have eroded or are working scared. Only after a number of missed conferences may C.I.A. officers and analysts conclude supply has determined it’s too harmful to go data.
In 2016, American intelligence officers started to appreciate the scope of Russia’s efforts after they gathered intelligence suggesting that Moscow needed to make use of Trump marketing campaign officers, wittingly or not, to assist sow chaos. John O. Brennan, the former director of the C.I.A., testified earlier than the House Intelligence Committee in May 2017 a few tense interval a yr earlier when he got here to imagine that Mr. Putin was attempting to steer the final result towards a victory for Mr. Trump.
Mr. Brennan described the broad outlines of the intelligence in his congressional testimony, and his disclosures backed up the accounts of the data supplied by the present and former officers. “I was convinced in the summer that the Russians were trying to interfere in the election. And they were very aggressive,” Mr. Brennan instructed lawmakers.
This yr, Mr. Coats issued a sequence of warnings saying the Russian authorities, and Mr. Putin in explicit, is intent on undermining American democratic programs.
At an look this month at the White House, Mr. Coats mentioned intelligence companies “continue to see a pervasive messaging campaign by Russia to try and weaken and divide the United States.” He added that these efforts “cover issues relevant to the elections.”
But officers mentioned there was no concrete intelligence pointing to Mr. Putin ordering his personal intelligence items to wade into the election to push for a sure final result, past a broad chaos marketing campaign to undermine religion in American democracy. Intelligence companies don’t imagine Mr. Putin has modified his technique; as an alternative, officers imagine they merely would not have the similar degree of entry to data from the Kremlin’s interior circle.
Intelligence assortment seems to have suffered after Russia expelled officers from American diplomatic outposts there in retaliation for the United States eradicating 60 Russian officers this yr, mentioned John Sipher, a 28-year veteran of the C.I.A. who served in Moscow in the 1990s and later ran the company’s Russia program.
The C.I.A.’s Moscow presence, in keeping with former officers, was at all times small, no less than in mild of the significance of the goal, the issue of spycraft and the quantity of counterintelligence the Russians devoted to thwarting American spies.
“The Russians kicked out a whole bunch of our people,” Mr. Sipher mentioned. “Our station in Moscow is probably really small now and they are under incredible surveillance.”
Mr. Putin has additionally mentioned he’s intent on killing so-called traitors, feedback he made simply forward of the high-profile assassination try of the former Russian intelligence officer, Sergei V. Skripal.
“The Russians are very focused and upset,” Mr. Sipher mentioned. “They have shown they are willing to kill sources.”
Informants near Putin are very uncommon, in keeping with present and former officers. The United States, in latest years, has had only some, and at occasions been reliant on just one or two for the most essential insights on Mr. Putin, in keeping with former officers. If these folks go silent for their very own safety, it could actually make it very laborious for the company to look inside Moscow.
The United States nonetheless ought to have a transparent view of Mr. Putin’s methods and intention to intrude in Democratic elections, mentioned Michael Carpenter, a Russia skilled and former Obama administration official. He pointed to pretend social media accounts created as a part of Russian intelligence operations which have drummed up assist for white nationalists and the Black Lives Matter motion, and have supported far proper, far left and pro-Russian candidates in the United States and in Europe.
“Clearly Russia is playing both sides of controversial issues precisely to sow chaos. But that said it is not just chaos, there are certain candidates Russia prefers to see in office,” mentioned Mr. Carpenter, now at the Penn Biden Center for Diplomacy and Global Engagement. “The Russians are trying to support anti-establishment and pro-Russian candidates, not just in the U.S. but everywhere.”
Still, there may be little doubt about the essential nature of informants, mentioned Seth G. Jones, who leads the transnational threats venture at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a coverage analysis group.
“It is essential to have sources coming from inside the government. It was during the Cold War and it is today,” Mr. Jones mentioned. “There are multiple ways to collect intelligence against your adversary, in this case the Russian government. But sources can provide you things you might not otherwise get, like documents, intelligence assessments.”
Sources can present pictures of Russian paperwork and intelligence which can be laborious to intercept electronically, and that may assist the United States work out what Russia is focusing on, not simply with its election meddling however with its makes an attempt to infiltrate monetary programs, the energy grid and different important infrastructure, Mr. Jones mentioned.
The full causes the sources have gone silent will not be identified. But present and former officers additionally mentioned the publicity of sources inside the United States has additionally difficult issues.
This yr, the id of an F.B.I. informant, Stefan Halper, turned public after House lawmakers sought data on him and the White House allowed the data to be shared. Mr. Halper, an American educational based mostly in Britain, had been despatched to speak to Trump marketing campaign advisers who have been below F.B.I. scrutiny for their ties to Russia.
Current American officers mentioned there isn’t a direct proof that the publicity of Mr. Halper has been cited by abroad informants as a supply of concern.
But the officers mentioned that some allies have cited the publicity of the informant and different intelligence leaks in curbing a few of the intelligence they share. And former spies imagine that, long-term, the publicity will damage abroad assortment.
“Publicizing sources is really bad for the business,” Mr. Sipher mentioned. “The only thing we can offer people is that we will do anything in our power to protect them. And anything that wears away at that trust, hurts.”